Budget Report

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22 December 2016 Saudi Arabia’s 2017 Budget Report Timely, Targeted and Expansionary Fiscal Policy Contents I Macroeconomic and Fiscal Performance in 2016 II Fiscal Budget Outlook in 2017: Timely, Targeted and Expansionary Fiscal Policy III Towards a Balanced Budget IV Concluding Remarks Highlights and NCB Views On Thursday, 22 December 2016, the Council of Ministers endorsed the government’s budget for 2017 and announced the final outcome of fiscal operations and macroeconomic performance for 2016.. Al-Ghalib Senior Economist m.alghalib alahli.com 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P -2 Oil Non-oil Public Non-oil Private Real GDP 2017F 2 Macroeconom ic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017F Latest 110.2 106.4 97.2 50.2 40.0 55.0 39.9 Average Saudi Crude Oil Production (mbd) 9.8 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.1 10.4 GDP at Current Market Prices (SAR billion) 2,752.3 2,791.3 2,826.9 2,422.5 2,573.2 2,707.8 - GDP at Current Market Prices (USD billion) 734.9 745.3 754.8 646.9 687.1 723.0 - Real GDP Grow th Rate, 5.4 2.7 3.6 4.5 1.4 -1.0 - CPI Inflation (Y/Y Change, Average) 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.2 3.4 2.0 2.6 Trade Balance (USD billion) 246.6 222.6 184.0 47.3 29.1 73.6 - Current Account Balance (USD billion) 164.8 135.4 73.8 -53.5 -69.5 -22.2 - Current Account/GDP 22.4 18.2 9.8 648.5 717.7 725.2 -10.1 542.5 -3.1 505.2 - Net Foreign Assets w ith SAMA (USD billion) -8.3 609.7 537 1,247.4 1,156.4 1,044.4 612.3 528.0 702.5 - Actual Expenditure (SAR billion) 873.3 976.0 1,100.0 978.0 825.0 882.8 - Overall Budget Balance (SAR billion) 374.1 180.3 -55.6 -365.7 -297.0 -180.2 - Budget Balance/GDP 14 6 -2 73.9 82.6 99.1 -11.5 62.6 -6.7 69.8 - Break-Even Oil Price (USD/bbl) -15.1 82.9 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Grow th in Broad Money (M3) 13.9 10.9 11.9 2.6 -1.4 2.3 0.6 Grow th in Credit to the Private Sector 16.4 12.1 11.9 9.8 6.5 4.1 6.2 Average 3M SAR Deposit Rate 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.3 3.0 2.1 Real Sector Average Arab Light Spot (USD/bbl) External Sector Fiscal Sector Actual Revenues